Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 21.521849 25.889458 30.718346 36.426032 42.959666 50.176474 58.720977
2025-03-02 14.551896 20.079573 26.854127 35.647079 46.627098 59.749779 76.469972
2025-03-09 10.928141 16.830992 24.671287 35.587144 50.101463 68.428744 92.970002
2025-03-16 7.923387 13.554403 21.617388 33.577849 50.380897 72.617879 103.655195
2025-03-23 6.626832 12.367611 21.105253 34.731289 54.702342 82.082869 121.489597
2025-03-30 5.264574 10.753161 19.642110 34.208712 56.453336 87.995134 134.716028
2025-04-06 4.644835 10.225251 19.732212 35.939208 61.495914 98.684604 154.986605
2025-04-13 3.444231 8.377950 17.358159 33.458849 59.888861 99.595995 161.331831
2025-04-20 2.944574 7.748383 16.950626 34.089170 63.072561 107.641958 178.280020
2025-04-27 2.567590 7.280624 16.750593 35.013544 66.739124 116.549520 196.844017
2025-05-04 2.280237 6.940110 16.729382 36.220396 70.910301 126.395014 217.190223
2025-05-11 1.988702 6.517667 16.477472 36.958208 74.301947 135.136092 236.161397
2025-05-18 1.615819 5.837151 15.685174 36.779722 76.419877 142.470405 254.149840
2025-05-25 1.262470 5.094703 14.640919 36.015000 77.493024 148.270030 270.208444
2025-06-01 1.022134 4.581395 14.001893 35.955870 79.794240 156.177669 289.941209
2025-06-08 0.735521 3.788226 12.523578 33.929791 78.207497 157.343333 298.682677
2025-06-15 0.639342 3.606542 12.530055 35.092943 82.783028 169.342467 325.782637
2025-06-22 0.499791 3.189063 11.825504 34.565977 83.976559 175.424995 343.177548
2025-06-29 0.452528 3.129799 12.095623 36.310960 89.832782 190.082757 375.656012
2025-07-06 0.306892 2.529592 10.661739 33.809791 86.784343 188.432533 380.040951
2025-07-13 0.257665 2.369447 10.518986 34.445428 90.317610 199.020521 406.056647
2025-07-20 0.221137 2.254546 10.495726 35.377563 94.539032 211.065148 435.037365
2025-07-27 0.193880 2.176582 10.579308 36.594489 99.452078 224.610814 467.116372